統計数学セミナー
Seminar on Probability and Statistics
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Seminar on Probability and Statistics
Tuesday May 12 2009
Tokyo 126
4:20-5:30 pm


Asymptotically efficient estimation of multiple change points in GARCH types models


塩濱 敬之 / SHIOHAMA Takayuki
東京理科大学, 工学部 / Tokyo University of Science, Department of Management Science

Abstract

Instability of volatility parameters in GARCH models in an important issue for analyzing financial time series. In this paper we investigate the asymptotic theory for multiple change point estimators of GARCH$(p,q)$ models. When the parameters of a GARCH models have changed within an observed realization, two types estimators, Maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) and Bayesian estimator (BE), are proposed. Then we derive the asymptotic distributions for these estimators. The MLE and BE have different limit laws, and the BE is asymptotically efficient. Monte Carlo studies on the finite sample behaviors are conducted. Applications to Nikkei 225 index are discussed.




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Seminar on Probability and Statistics