統計数学セミナー
Seminar on Probability and Statistics
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Seminar on Probability and Statistics
Thursday October 18 2012
Tokyo 006
3:15-4:25 pm


Quasi-Bayesian analysis of nonparametric instrumental variables models


加藤 賢悟 / KATO, Kengo
広島大学大学院理学研究科数学専攻 / Department of Mathematics, Graduate School of Science, Hiroshima University

Abstract

This paper aims at developing a quasi-Bayesian analysis of the nonparametric instrumental variables model, with a focus on the asymptotic properties of quasi-posterior distributions. In this paper, instead of assuming a distributional assumption on the data generating process, we consider a quasi-likelihood induced from the conditional moment restriction, and put priors on the function-valued parameter. We call the resulting posterior quasi-posterior, which corresponds to ``Gibbs posterior'' in the literature. Here we shall focus on sieve priors, which are priors that concentrate on finite dimensional sieve spaces. The dimension of the sieve space should increase as the sample size. We derive rates of contraction and a non-parametric Bernstein-von Mises type result for the quasi-posterior distribution, and rates of convergence for the quasi-Bayes estimator defined by the posterior expectation. We show that, with priors suitably chosen, the quasi-posterior distribution (the quasi-Bayes estimator) attains the minimax optimal rate of contraction (convergence, respectively). These results greatly sharpen the previous related work.




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Seminar on Probability and Statistics