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Seminar on Probability and Statistics Tuesday February 10 2015 Tokyo 052 (Host) and Osaka I407 (Web) 4:30-5:40 pm
Zero-intelligence modelling of limit order books
Ioane Muni Toke Ecole Centrale Paris Abstract Limit order books (LOB) are at the core of electronic financial markets.
A LOB centralizes all orders of all market participants on a given
exchange, matching buy and sell orders of all types.
In a first part, we observe that a LOB is a queueing system and that this analogy is fruitful to derive stationary properties of these structures. Using a basic Poisson model, we compute analytical formulas for the average shape of the LOB. Our model allows for non-unit size of limit orders, leading to new predictions on the granularity of financial markets that turn out to be empirically valid. In a second part, we study the LOB during the call auction, a market design often used during the opening and closing phases of the trading day. We show that in a basic Poisson model of the call auction, the distributions for the traded volume and the range of clearing prices are analytically computable. In the case of a liquid market, we derive weak limits of these distributions and test them empirically. |
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