統計数学セミナー
Seminar on Probability and Statistics
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Seminar on Probability and Statistics
Friday June 19 2015
Osaka I407
2:40-3:50 pm


Short-time at-the-money skew and rough fractional volatility


深澤正彰 / FUKASAWA, Masaaki
大阪大学理学部 / Graduate School of Science, Osaka University

Abstract

The Black-Scholes implied volatility skew at the money of SPX options is known to obey a power law with respect to the time-to-maturity. We construct a model of the underlying asset price process which is dynamically consistent to the power law. The volatility process of the model is driven by a fractional Brownian motion with Hurst parameter less than half. The fractional Brownian motion is correlated with a Brownian motion which drives the asset price process. We derive an asymptotic expansion of the implied volatility as the time-to-maturity tends to zero. For this purpose we introduce a new approach to validate such an expansion, which enables us to treat more general models than in the literature. The local-stochastic volatility model is treated as well under an essentially minimal regularity condition in order to show such a standard model cannot be dynamically consistent to the power law.




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Seminar on Probability and Statistics