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Seminar on Probability and Statistics |
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Seminar on Probability and Statistics Monday February 2 2004 Tokyo 126 2:00-3:10 pm
Probability without measure
Volodya VOVK University of London Abstract The standard mathematical theory of probability is based on measure
theory ("Kolmogorov's axioms of probability"); in this talk I will argue
that the theory of perfect-information games can serve as an alternative
foundation. Game-theoretic versions of standard limit theorems (I will
state a game-theoretic law of large numbers, law of the iterated
logarithm and central limit theorem) are more powerful than their
measure-theoretic counterparts; but what is even more important, the
game-theoretic approach appears better suited to several areas of
application of probability theory. In finance, for example,
game-theoretic ideas make it possible either to relax the stochastic
assumptions needed or to replace them with completely different (and
more natural) assumptions. This talk will be based on the book by Glenn
Shafer and Vladimir Vovk "Probability and Finance: It's Only a Game!"
(New York: Wiley, 2001).
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