統計数学セミナー
Seminar on Probability and Statistics
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Seminar on Probability and Statistics
Friday April 23 2004
Tokyo 118
3:00-4:10 pm


時系列解析における最近の新展開


谷口 正信 / TANIGUCHI, Masanobu
早稲田大学理工学部 / Depertment of Mathematical Science in WasedaUniversity

Abstract

The following two topics will be presented.
I) For a class of Gaussian stationary processes, the spectral density $f_ heta(\lambda), \ heta = ( au', \eta')'$, is assumed to be a piecewise continuous function, where $ au$ describes the discontinuity points, and the gain is smoothly parameterized by $\eta$. Although estimating the parameter $ heta$ is a very fundamental problem, there has been no systematic asymptotic estimation theory for this problem. This work develops the systematic asymptotic estimation theory for piecewise continuous spectra based on the likelihood ratio for contiguous parameters. It is shown that the log-likelihood ratio is not locally asymptotic normal(LAN). Two estimators for $ heta$, i.e., the maximum likelihood estimator $\widehat{ heta}_{ML}$ and Bayes estimator $\widehat{ heta}_B$ are introduced. Then the asymptotic distributions of $\widehat{ heta}_{ML}$ and $\widehat{ heta}_B$ are derived and shown to be nonnormal. Furthermore we observe that $\widehat{ heta}_B$ is asymptotically efficient, but $\widehat{ heta}_{ML}$ is not so. Also various versions of step spectra are considered.
II) The Stein-James type estimators for short- and long- memory vector time series are proposed. Then, their various statistical properties are illuminated.




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Seminar on Probability and Statistics