統計数学セミナー
Seminar on Probability and Statistics |
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Seminar on Probability and Statistics Wednesday December 12 2007 Tokyo 122 3:20-4:30 pm
Inference problems for the telegraph process observed at discrete times
Stefano IACUS Department of Economics, Business and Statistics, University of Milan Abstract The telegraph process {X(t), t>0}, has been introduced (see
Goldstein, 1951) as an alternative model to the Brownian motion B(t).
This process describes a motion of a particle on the real line which
alternates its velocity, at Poissonian times, from +v to -v. The
density of the distribution of the position of the particle at time t
solves the hyperbolic differential equation called telegraph equation
and hence the name of the process.
Contrary to B(t) the process X(t) has finite variation and
continuous and differentiable paths. At the same time it is
mathematically challenging to handle. Several variation of this
process have been recently introduced in the context of Finance.
In this talk we will discuss pseudo-likelihood and moment type estimators of the intensity of the Poisson process, from discrete time observations of standard telegraph process X(t). We also discuss the problem of change point estimation for the intensity of the underlying Poisson process and show the performance of this estimator on real data. |
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